When the exit poll was announced by David Dimbleby on an evening that would shape the political destiny of many, a collective gasp was barely audible over the cacophony drummed up by the media. Whilst every media outlet was predicting another hung parliament, a dead heat, the result seemed far more definitive than any were previously suggesting. Rather than a prolonged aftermath of reporters standing outside parliament discussing the potential bartering and deals necessary for the formation of a working government, a result was announced almost as quickly as polling started. The reality was worse than Labour initially feared, giving the Conservatives a majority and leaving an uphill battle come the next election. The Conservative and Liberal Democrat Coalition had succeeded in something many governments struggle with. Competency.
With some trepidation, I will explore the key reasons why I believe the election result went the way that it did.
The Conservatives, for the most part, ran a negative campaign which was basic but effective. The fear the Scottish National Party would exert significant influence over the Labour party and put the interests of the Scottish people above those of the English struck a chord with many voters. Ed Miliband was seen as weak by many and it was felt that during political discourse, Nicola Sturgeon would be in control (much to the delight of many satirical cartoonists).
Many looked at Labour as a party of financial incompetence, spending money when the economic sun was shining but failing to prepare for the inevitable rainy day. This is a separate argument that politicians and journalists have spent many column inches debating. How responsible were Labour for the economic collapse? There is no question that it was a global financial crisis and not one that can be put squarely at Labour's door, but, it should be noted, some governments were better equipped at dealing with the fallout than others. This resonates in voter's minds. Labour will for some, always be the party of financial irresponsibility. No debate or discussion would pass without the Blair/Brown government's big spending image being raised, if not by an inquisitive journalist but by members of the public.
Labour failed to deliver a clear and coherent message to the people. The Conservatives could point to their own philosophy of personal responsibility, hard work and aspiration, people "getting on" in life. Labour would consistently talk about protecting the NHS but this wasn't enough. There is no question that ensuring the NHS can continue to operate into the distant future is an issue close to voters hearts but simply pledging more money to it is not adequate. Labour initially used the private sector to bring down hospital waiting times and now are vehemently against private sector involvement brought forward by the Conservatives. The message is muddled, causing some to refer to them as a lighter version of the Conservative party rather than a real alternative. Private sector involvement in the NHS needs to be discussed maturely without the rhetoric and fear mongering that is so common place regarding the issue.
Labour are placed in a tough situation when it comes to immigration policy. UKIP have continiously raised the question of immigration much to the behest of the main political parties. It is a difficult question to answer, with the free movement of people being a core tenet of the European Union, no clear promises can be made. David Cameron learnt this to his dismay with the proposal of an immigration cap during the 2010 election. The cap failed miserably, providing opponents plenty of ammunition. Labour were and are seen by many as the party that allowed immigration to escalate to unacceptable levels during the Blair years. Regardless of where you stand on this issue personally, it is something that many voters won't forgive the party for. Many working class votes have been lost to UKIP due to the negligence of the party being incapable of sufficiently answering the questions posed by the electorate.
The Conservatives being seen as "the party of business" served them very well during a time of economic recovery. This allowed them to portray the Labour party as the opposite; anti-business. Labour failed to respond clearly to these accusations, embedding in voters minds doubts regarding the safety of the economic recovery under Labour.
It is sad to say that generally speaking, some people will look at appearance and personality over policies. Whilst this is something that isn't ideal, it needs to be accepted as a political reality. With this being the case, Ed Miliband simply didn't reach out to voters on a personal level. David Cameron was seen as the more competent leader in every poll.
First and foremost, Labour need to come back with a strong, simple and coherent party message. They can't simply point at the Conservatives and say they would have done it differently, although in opposition that is all you can do for the most part. They need to come forward with clear principled ideas about how the country can be run for the benefit of everyone, create their own message of aspiration which is inclusive across the electorate.
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